Three touchdowns on 12 catches is the kind of arithmetic that makes a tight end irresistible near the goal line. It also makes him easier to find.
That is Jake Ferguson’s curious position as Dallas prepares for Thursday night’s meeting with Tampa Bay at AT&T Stadium. Ferguson has produced 83 yards and three scores on a modest receiving line, giving the Cowboys an efficient secondary option. Secondary still matters here.
CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are occupying the first row of Tampa’s matchup planning, and that attention could determine how often Ferguson gets a clean chance.
Tuesday’s comments from Tampa safety Tykee Smith explain the defensive concern. He focused on Lamb and Pickens moving around the formation to create favorable matchups, saying the Buccaneers will need precise communication and disguised coverage. The purpose is straightforward: make Dak Prescott sort through the picture after the snap rather than recognize it immediately and check into the most attractive play.
That approach can elevate Ferguson’s value without turning him into Dallas’ featured receiver. If Tampa tilts coverage toward Lamb or Pickens, Ferguson may become the best answer in one particular call. If a defender is waiting for him near the goal line, his route may draw attention that helps somebody else.
His usefulness will come from how Dallas selects among those options, not from an assumed target quota.
Sunday in Houston showed why the Cowboys cannot simply trade volume for efficiency. Lamb ran 45 routes, drew 21 targets and caught 17 passes in a 34-30 victory. His 12-yard touchdown on the final play supplied the winning margin, while Dallas scored 28 points after halftime. When the game demanded a repeated answer, Prescott kept returning to the receiver most involved in moving the offense.
Ferguson offers a different form of leverage. Last season, he drew 13 targets from inside the 10-yard line and turned six of them into touchdowns. Pair that history with this season’s three scores on 12 receptions, and Dallas has a logical reason to look for him when the field shrinks.
The same efficiency gives Tampa reason to scrutinize him. A player who has scored on one-quarter of his catches is unlikely to remain a footnote in Tampa’s red-zone preparation.
The Buccaneers have earned the right to make that decision uncomfortable. They are 0-4, yet each of their last three opponents finished with fewer than 285 total yards. Tampa has allowed touchdowns on 45.5% of red-zone possessions, tied for fifth in the league.
Those numbers describe a defense that can give up territory without routinely surrendering the final exchange. Reaching scoring range will not automatically produce a comfortable throw for Ferguson.
