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Jake Ferguson’s Work Should Begin Before Tampa’s Goal Line

SirVocea Dennis is out, but Josiah Trotter’s return keeps Tampa Bay’s linebacker group sturdy enough to challenge Jake Ferguson in the red zone and throughout the drive.

Quincy Abbott

October 8, 20264 min read

Josiah Trotter has 30 tackles in three games, a substantial tackle total before Dallas meets Tampa Bay on Thursday night. The Cowboys will not be facing a nameless vacancy in the middle of the Buccaneers’ defense. Tampa formally ruled linebacker SirVocea Dennis out in Wednesday’s final game designations, but Trotter practiced fully for the second straight day and remains in position to return.

That changes the shape of Jake Ferguson’s assignment. The Dallas tight end has 12 catches for 83 yards and three receiving touchdowns through four games. The yardage is quiet; the scoring role is not. His 2025 workload suggests a role near the goal line: 13 targets inside the 10 yielded six touchdowns. Tampa’s defense will test whether that earlier option remains useful.

The matchup can be reduced to two striking red-zone figures. Dallas has converted 81.3% of its trips inside the 20 into touchdowns. Tampa has allowed touchdowns on only 45.5% of opponents’ red-zone possessions.

Four games are a small sample, and those percentages do not forecast Thursday’s result. They do, however, describe the tension: Ferguson’s most valuable territory is also the area where Tampa has applied its firmest resistance.

Dennis’ absence could encourage a wonderfully simple game plan: remove one linebacker, attack the linebackers. Football tends to charge extra for simple answers. Trotter’s production in his three appearances shows how involved he has been when available, while his full Wednesday participation removes the easiest assumption Dallas might have made about Tampa’s second level.

His current listing concerns a knee issue; his earlier missed game was associated with a separate shoulder injury. The current report provides participation information rather than a guarantee about his workload.

Green Bay’s tight ends provide a more concrete reason to keep Ferguson involved. Tucker Kraft and Mark Redman combined for eight receptions, 71 yards and a touchdown against Tampa on Sunday. That is background for the matchup, not evidence that Thursday will repeat it. It does show the Buccaneers’ overall defensive success has coexisted with production at Ferguson’s position.

For Ferguson, the work needs to begin before the red zone. If he becomes a player Tampa only has to find inside the final 20 yards, the defense can narrow its attention and make every target more expensive.

His 12 receptions are a much smaller piece of Dallas’ passing volume than CeeDee Lamb’s 37 catches for 498 yards, but that distribution can help the tight end. Tampa has to respect Lamb’s workload. Ferguson becomes more troublesome when he influences the defense on earlier downs rather than appearing only as the designated closer.

Through four games, Prescott has a 105.0 passer rating alongside eight touchdown passes and 1,065 yards, while Dallas converts 51.0% of its offensive third downs. Those numbers matter because a red-zone specialist is only as useful as the offense’s ability to reach the red zone with something resembling a plan.

Ferguson can contribute with a catch, but he can also make the defense account for him while Lamb and the other receivers work elsewhere. Tampa has allowed opponents to convert just 32.7% of third downs, so Dallas cannot expect late finishing to repair a possession that repeatedly dies early.

The Buccaneers’ 0-4 record should not obscure the quality of their defense. They allow 282.8 total yards and 78.5 rushing yards per game, and each of the three offenses they most recently faced finished at or below 285 yards. Tampa has six sacks through four games and has also intercepted a pass, including Jacob Parrish’s pick against Green Bay on Sunday.

This is a defense that has limited yardage without needing an avalanche of takeaways, then tightened further near the goal line.

That makes the opening portion of each drive important for Ferguson. A few ordinary completions could matter more than a single dramatic red-zone catch if they prevent Tampa from treating him as a situational threat. Dallas’ offense averages 258.0 passing yards per game, and Tampa’s third-down results suggest sustained progress will take work.

Dennis being out changes Tampa’s personnel. Trotter’s return keeps the matchup’s substance intact. Ferguson’s three touchdowns make him the obvious finisher, but Dallas will get the better version of him if he is part of the entire possession. Against Tampa’s linebacker strength, the route to the end zone may start several downs before the scoreboard notices.

Sources

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: dated injury report and game context

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: dated injury report and game context

Dallas Cowboys: team reporting

Dallas Cowboys: team reporting

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: dated injury report and game context

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Quincy Abbott

Quincy Abbott covers Allen high school and area college sports.

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